With medical experts increasingly worried about a resurgence of coronavirus—as several states in the West and South report record numbers of new cases—only New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut are “on track” to contain the spread of the virus, according to Covid Act Now.
New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts are seeing a steadily decreasing number of cases, according to Covid Act Now, a nonprofit that tracks the spread of the virus in real time by analyzing different metrics such as a state’s infection rate, positive test rate, ICU headroom, contact tracing efforts and future hospitalization trends.
All four states were hard-hit by the pandemic when it first arrived in the United States; New York, in particular, was for some time the global epicenter of coronavirus cases during its peak of infections in April.
While these states were among the first to institute widespread lockdown measures and enforce social distancing, many others took their time in doing so or implemented more lenient restrictions—like not requiring face masks.
After states began reopening and lifting lockdown measures, some are now seeing a record spike in new infections: California, Texas and Florida, for example, each have over 5,000 new cases per day, while the tri-state area is down to less than 1,000 combined.
Most of the country is experiencing “controlled disease growth,” but four states are at critical risk, with an “active or imminent outbreak” ongoing: Arizona, Missouri, Alabama and Georgia.
A total of 18 states—including Texas and Florida—are classified as “at risk” of an outbreak, with cases increasing at a rate likely to overwhelm hospitals, according to COVID Act Now.
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut on Wednesday announced they will require visitors from Florida, Texas and other states with a spike in new cases to quarantine for 14 days on arrival. “We worked very hard to get the viral transmission rate down. We don’t want to see it go up because a lot of people come into this region and they can literally bring the infection with them,” said New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in a joint press conference with New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont. The criteria for inclusion on the list is a positive test rate of 10% or higher or 10 new cases per 100,000 residents over a seven-day rolling average, Cuomo said. As of today, that order includes travelers from Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas. While individuals will be trusted to self-isolate on their own, if they violate the quarantine order they will be fined.
New cases in the U.S. recently hit their highest level since April, with worrying new single-day records of new cases in the nation’s three most populated states—Florida, California and Texas. The tri-state area was previously the main U.S. hotspot of coronavirus cases and related deaths in April and May, but has since seen new cases fall significantly while that number rises across much of the country.